Today’s desperate search for a Man Bites Dog story takes us to Canada, where the Linear No-Threshold Model allows the writer to do some fanciful sums:
About 800 people worldwide will get cancer from radiation due to Fukushima in fish eaten to date, according to Georgia Straight calculations. […] Half the cancers will be fatal. About 500 will be in Japan; 75 will be due to Japanese fish exports to other countries; and 225 will be from fishing in the Pacific by nations other than Japan.
Let’s get rid of the silly figure of 225 from other nations first – this is most likely (they don’t show their sums) by giving everyone in the world two becquerels per kilo of fish eaten and applying the Linear No-Threshold Model to get the answer.
Now, 500 cancers with 250 fatalities from two and a half years fish-eating for the population of Japan would work out as about 1 death in 1.2 million per year or 0.083 cases per 100,000 population, the usual way these figures are quoted. Looking at a random article from a Google search on booze, 20,000 Americans per year keel over from cancer caused by alcohol, and 35% of them are drinking 1.5 standard measures (around about a pint of beer, for instance) or less. Taking 200 million as the adult population of the USA, we get a risk of about 1 in 28,600, or 3.5 cases per 100,000, or 42 times more deadly for even just the moderate drinkers.
There’s also a number of other flaws in their assumptions such as the distribution of caesium testing points that I’ll leave it up to the reader to discover…
Next they interview scientists and “scientists”, including dear old Arnie Gundersen. Let’s have a look:
“Apologists say it’s a large ocean”
Heh, that word is catching.
“150,000 more people in Germany would die of cancer each year if all food had radiation at the European Union ceiling”
If we perform the same maths, I wonder how many Germans die from cancer from Brazil nuts and bananas every year?
“All this BS about natural radiation is used as an excuse to expose us to more radiation through their nuclear-industry processes”
I make that six people representing various anti-nuclear bodies, versus one not very articulate (or made to look not very articulate) anti-scaremongerer.
Finally, via Eido, here a doctor speaks about the Fookoofrankenfish risk being, err, one in five million!